Jorray's Theorem: How to find great value wines without tasting them first

In a previous article, I discussed the strategy that we use at Spirit of Wine to identify great wine values. In this article, I want to give you a technique to find great wine values in wines you've never even tried before!!

Sounds like hocus-pocus, right? Not quite... actually it's quite simple.

The Basics

First step: find a wine reviewer whose tastes you feel are similar to yours. So, whether it's Wine Spectator, Wine Advocate, Wine Enthusiast, or - ahem - Spirit of Wine, keep in mind any wines you might like to try which have ratings of at least 90 on a 100-point scale, or at least three stars on a five star scale.

Those wines are the quality wines. But it does not necessarily mean they are the value wines.

To find the value wines, you've got to add price into the mix. I will describe the technique for doing this in U.S. dollars, but it will work with translation to any currency.

100-Point Rating Systems

First, for 100-point rating systems, discard the leading "9" for the wine that interests you (a wine that scored at least 90 points, remember). This leaves you with the single digit to the right of the "9". So, for instance, if you like Jay Miller's scoring system, and Jay rated a certain wine 92 points, remove the leading "9" and you're left with the "2".

Now multiply that single digit by 10. So, in this example, the 2 becomes 2x10 = 20. That result becomes your target price in dollars - in this case, $20.

Now, if you can purchase your target wine in the vicinity of that target price - ie, for around $20 - it is a great value. If you can get it for less than that price, it is a screaming value.

Now add $10 to the target price. That becomes your upper limit price - in this example, $30. If you can buy your wine for somewhere between the target price and the upper limit price - in this example, for somewhere between $20 and $30 - it is a good value.

Above the upper limit price, your wine is not a particular value. It is still a quality wine; it is just not a value wine. So, using our example, a 92 point Jay Miller-rated wine selling for $35 is not considered a value wine.

Once you get the hang of this, it's easy to calculate the value equation in your head for any rating score. So, if Robert Parker is your preferred rater, a wine rated 95 points by Parker is screaming value below $50, a great value at $50, and not a particularly good value above $60.

A 90-point wine is a bit of a special case. 0x10 = 0, so your target price is around $0. It means it is impossible to get screaming value wines at 90-point scores; but at prices in the low single digit dollars, you can get great value wines, and up to around $10 you still have a good value wine.

5-Star Rating Systems

Many rating systems - including Spirit of Wine - use a 5-star rating system with very specific meanings associated with each star. You can see those ratings for Spirit of Wine here. Other 5-star rating systems may use other descriptions.

Using a 5-start rating system, your first step is to consider wines in the 3, 4 and 5- star categories. Based on these, your best value wines will be those whose categories of price are at least two categories below the number of stars. To determine the categories of price, use the Spirit of Wine price scale:

$: (<$12 U.S.)

$$: ($12-20 U.S.)

$$$: ($20-35 U.S.)

$$$$: ($35-50 U.S.)

$$$$$: (>$50 U.S.)

Now, if the number of stars is two greater than the number of $ signs, you have a great value wine. If the number of stars is two and a half (many 5-star systems allow half-points or pluses/minuses) or three greater than the number of $$ signs, then you have a screaming value. If the number of stars is one and a half greater than the number of $$ signs , then you have a good value wine.

So, for instance, a wine that rates three stars and sells for $11 (equal to one $ in the chart above), has a star rating that is two above the price rating, and is thus a great value wine.
A wine that rates four stars and sells for $11 has a star rating that is three above the price rating, and is thus a screaming value wine. Here's an example of one of those from the Spirit of Wine system, the Hardy's Whisker Blake Tawny Port.

20-Point Rating Systems

Sometimes you run across a 20-point rating system, often with fractional scores, like 18.5. To find value wines among these, I suggest that you use this simple approach: Multiply the 20-point rating by 5, then use the 100-point system approach as described above.

So, for example, suppose you see an 18.5 point wine selling for $26. The 18.5 multiplied by 5 becomes 92.5. Dropping the "9", you get 2.5. Then, multiplying by 10, you get 25. So $25 is your target price. At $26, the wine is just about at the target price, so go ahead and call it a great value. See? Not so hard.

I hope this is useful to you as you extend your reach and consider value wines in categories you may not have had the willingness to explore before.

**** $ 2004 Finnegan's Lake "Fin" Cabernet Sauvignon, CA - Wine Review and Rating

Find Finnegan's Lake Cabernet Sauvignon at WineZap.
 

Original Review April 2007:
This California-sourced cabernet is produced by Sherbrooke Cellars. Sherbrooke Cellars itself is an importer and distributor based in Scarsdale, New York.

Sherbrooke Cellars represents over 20 estates. These span locations from Italy, France, Argentina, New Zealand tothe United States.

Now, let's move on to the wine itself... To the eye, Finnegan's Lake Cabernet Sauvignon, 2004, is a classic, mahogany red. When swirled for air, deep, velvety shoe-polish aromas come bursting out of the glass, a bit reminiscent of the nose from Mollydooker's The Boxer - which was 100% shiraz. On deeper examination, that aromatic similarity to Mollydooker survives. This is an alluring, slightly creamy, very velvety, oak-tinged, grapesickle-saturated nose, promising gobs of dripping fruit.

Let's see... The palate is big fruit, ringed by slightly toasty, slightly furry oak, with cherry cola overtones. The finish settles off into a moderately lengthy, slightly sweet, simple finish. Completely luscious. And incredible value.

By contrast, here are notes from retailer Zachy's: "This Cabernet is one CHARMING puppy. Bright fruit and eucalyptus bouquet hits the nose, a mouthful of juicy boysenberry fruit, a friendly approach with exellent depth and finesse andv elvety-smooth tannins, and a finish that's miles long! Undeniably one of the best values on the shelf!"

------------------
Updated Review, six months later, September, 2007:
Holding very well. Consistent notes. Same score. This time I noted a bit of pleasant pipe tobacco on the back end, and a furry tannin finish. Very nice. I'll order 2005's based on my happy experience with the 2004's, and I'll lay a few down for aging too.

-------------------
Updated Review, two and a half years later, October, 2009:
Medium red now, just slightest hints of brick at the edge. Aromatically, YES, the potent shoe-polish is still there; maybe it's buffed out a bit, but it still suggests a potent sip. Let's see...

Smooth, clean, just lightly sweet and round red fruit in the middle is the first note on the palate. The round middle moves to show a hint of oak, and clean sweet settling around your cheeks. For finish, light but apparent tannins, and light but apparent acids. I'd probably be at three stars now, with a definite plus for pleasure and balance. Based on the sequence of tastings, I'd say longer aging would not be of particular benefit. Think of Fin's for a two-to-four-year holding period from vintage date.

Find Finnegan's Lake Cabernet Sauvignon at WineZap.

Your Best Wine Values for Thanksgiving

(Late breaking note... Consider this just-reviewed pinot noir too: Terra Noble Pinot Noir Reserva)

When thinking about the wines you'd like to choose for Thanksgiving dinner, there are a few conflicting thoughts. First, unlike the simplicity of pairing a clean white wine with fish dinner, or a muscular red with steak, you're often dealing with turkey as a focus. And turkey - sort of like salmon - falls in that gustatory category somewhere smack between fish and steak. Not the easiest wine place to be.

Then, add to that, the fact that, if you're thinking about good VALUE wines to use for Thanksgiving, that you may well have guests to consider too. And, with guests, you likely are not hunting for something at the lowest rung of the commercial spectrum.

So with those double challenges in mind, let's look for what wines might make sense for Thanksgiving, that can still bring excellent value to your purchase.

To begin, let's talk a bit about "value". For us at Spirit of Wine, value starts with a simple comparison: what is the quality - or rating - of a wine, and what is its price point. For both of these questions, we have simple metrics: one, two, three, four or five stars for quality (sometimes with a plus), and one-through-five dollar signs for price.

With these simple ratings in place for nearly a thousand wines, the question of "value" becomes a simple - almost mechanical - one. When the rating of a wine (its number of stars) exceeds the price of a wine (its number of dollar signs) by two or more, it is a great value. (When a wine's rating exceeds its price by one dollar sign with a plus, we consider that a "good value", though not "great".)

So, that covers value. Now let's think about the type of wine that can work with Thanksgiving dinner. Well, since turkey falls in some ways between steak and fish, some folks suggest rose wines. That's not a bad idea in concept.

The other thing to keep in mind, though, is that it is often the topping, dressing or sauce - and not the meat or fish itself - that should be most closely paired with the wine. With that in mind, a thin "au juice" dressing for the turkey may suggest a lighter, brigher wine - perhaps a bold white or a pinot noir; while a dense, sweet, giblet-laden gravy may suggest a richer pairing - perhaps a Rhone blend, a Lodi zinfandel or even an Aussie shiraz, to cut the sweetness of the gravy.

With all these considerations in mind, here are a few best value wines to consider for Thanksgiving, based on Spirit of Wine reviews:

***+ $ Domaine de la Chesnay Cotes du Rhone, 2007, France - Review and Rating

Find Domaine de la Chesnay at WineZap.

**** $ Cerejeiras Tinto (Red Wine), 2007, Vinho Regional Estremadura, Portugal - Review and Rating

Find Cerejeiras at WineZap.

***+ $ Patrick Lesec Bouquet Cotes du Rhone, 2005, France - Wine Review and Rating

Find Lesec Bouquet Cotes du Rhone at WineZap.

***+ $ Mazzone Immensus Malvasia, 2007, Puglia, Italy - Wine Review and Rating

Find Immensus at WineZap.

***+ $ Dr. Loosen Bros. Riesling, 2008, Mosel, Germany

Find Dr. Loosen Riesling at WineZap.

*** $ Indomita Cantus Pinot Noir, 2007, Casablanca Valley, Chile - Wine Review and Rating

Find Cantus Pinot Noir at WineZap.

****+ $ Nederburg Pinotage, 2007, Western Cape, South Africa - Wine Review and Rating

By way of background: Nederburg Pinotage is a highly-regarded, bargain-priced pinotage from the Western Cape area of South Africa. Winemaking was said to have begun in the farming tracts here as early as 1937. Pinotage, a cross between pinot noir and cinsaut (also called hermitage) is a popular single-varietal in South Africa. The 2007 version of this pinotage is finished at 13.5% alcohol.

In the glass: Nederburg Pinotage is a medium deep velvet red in the glass, never quite moving to opaque even in the middle of the glass. It is a quite becoming color overall, however.

On the nose: Rich, thick aromas of deep fruit, ripe plantain and oak. Yummy.

On the palate: A solid, charred and rich middle hits first. Charcoal-broiled bananas? Following that, a lightly sweet, still rich dark cherry flavor creeps up the sides of your cheeks. There it invades your upper cheek crevices, bringing lots of oak, slick banana inner-peel, and dark red fruits.

And the finish: The finish for Nederburg Pinotage wraps around its tannins, tightening and releasing flavors for the better part of a minute after you've finished the sip. No cloying elements to the finish... just a vanishing reminder of the same elements you've just enjoyed. A little touch of banana inner-peel remains after all else has faded. Fascinating.

In summary: A pleasant, deep, layered, sophisticated experience. I'd completely stay with it for an evening. Four stars on the five-star Spirit of Wine scale, with a plus for deftly combining pleasure and complexity. Awesome, jaw-dropping value at its bargain price.

Find Nederburg Pinotage at WineZap.